Exceeding 1.5°C: What UNEP's latest climate warning means for New Zealand businesses

UNEP's latest climate report confirms that the world is likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming within the next few years. While the findings are serious, the report also carries an important message of agency: the extent and duration of future warming remains within our influence.

For New Zealand businesses, this matters because our success is deeply connected to the health of the natural systems that support our economy, from productive land and water resources to the ecosystems that underpin agriculture, tourism and community wellbeing.

The choices organisations make today can help reduce climate-related risks, strengthen the resilience of our commercial and natural assets, and contribute to a more sustainable and prosperous future for New Zealand and the Pacific.

What just changed?

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released a new report concluding that global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. However, the report stresses that it is still possible to limit the extent of that overshoot, reduce climate risks, and ultimately return temperatures below 1.5°C through rapid emissions reductions, adaptation measures and responsible carbon removals.

Rather than asking whether the world can avoid all climate impacts, the conversation is increasingly shifting toward how governments, communities and businesses can minimise the scale and duration of warming.

Why it matters

• Climate risk is business risk. Every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C is expected to increase physical climate impacts, creating greater challenges for infrastructure, operations, supply chains and communities.
• Business resilience is rising in importance. Organisations will need to think beyond emissions reduction alone and consider how they adapt for increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disruptions.
• Customers, investors and procurement teams will increasingly expect credible climate action. Exceeding 1.5°C reinforces the importance of emissions reduction, transparent reporting and measurable progress.
• The resilience of New Zealand's natural assets is a business priority. Climate change is increasing pressure on the land, water, ecosystems and coastal areas that support key industries and communities. Organisations that help strengthen the resilience of natural assets will be better positioned long-term.
• The opportunity remains within our influence. UNEP's central message is that today's decisions will help determine how high temperatures peak and how quickly they can decline.

Our view

The most important message for New Zealand businesses is not that the world may exceed 1.5°C. It is that the scale and duration of that overshoot is still within our influence.

A common misconception is that crossing 1.5°C would signal the failure of climate action. UNEP's report suggests the opposite. The case for action becomes stronger because every emissions reduction achieved today can help limit future warming and reduce long-term climate risks.

We believe this marks the next phase of climate action. For many organisations, the focus is shifting from setting targets to delivering measurable reductions, improving resilience and adapting to a changing climate. Success will increasingly be judged not by commitments alone, but by evidence of progress.

What to do next

• Review your targets and reduction plan: do you have a strong, reasonably resourced action plan for successfully achieving ambitious targets?
• Assess climate resilience: Consider where climate-related risks could affect your operations, assets, suppliers or customers. Identify and implement opportunities to mitigate against these risks.
• Strengthen data and reporting: Ensure emissions data, targets and disclosures are credible enough to support decision-making and respond to growing stakeholder expectations.

If you’re a Toitū client and would like to discuss your climate strategy — reach out to your dedicated Programme Lead or our Client Support Team at support@toitu.co.nz (mailto:support@toitu.co.nz), or call 0800 366 275 (option 2) at any time.

Closing thoughts

The UNEP report carries an important message of agency: the extent and duration of future warming remains within our influence.

Exceeding 1.5°C should be a reminder that reducing emissions, building resilience and preparing for future risks is critical, and that the choices organisations make today will help shape tomorrow's climate and business environment.

Every action taken today can help shape a more resilient future for businesses, communities and the wider Pacific region for generations to come.