As the climate and business landscape continues to shift, 2025 is already proving to be a defining year. While headlines might focus on political backpedaling or policy delays overseas, the signals we’re seeing in New Zealand—and globally—tell a different story.
For businesses, climate action is no longer a side issue. It’s becoming central to strategic planning, risk management, and long-term competitiveness – from chief executive level right up to director and board level.
At Toitū Envirocare, our work with clients and partners across sectors gives us a unique window into how forward-thinking organisations are responding. From the boardroom to the supply chain, sustainability is now being viewed through a much sharper lens—and the smartest players are adapting accordingly.
Here are seven trends shaping the intersection of climate and business in 2025:
1. Climate policy isn’t retreating—it’s reshaping
There’s been plenty of coverage on regulatory delays in the US and EU, but it’s a mistake to assume climate policy is in retreat. In reality, we’re seeing a recalibration. Temporary pauses in policy can offer breathing space—but not for inaction.
Businesses that move now, before requirements tighten again, can lock in long-term stability and demonstrate leadership. Climate transparency and credible action are no longer optional—they’re reputational and financial necessities.
“Delays in policy changes may feel like a retreat, but they aren’t going away. If anything, they give businesses a short window to get ahead and do things properly—without reducing transparency or accountability.”
2. The rise of greenhushing: why silence is a risk
As scrutiny around greenwashing grows, some businesses are retreating into silence—what’s being called greenhushing. But keeping quiet about sustainability efforts doesn’t reduce risk; it just removes the opportunity to build trust.
Businesses that share their climate journeys transparently—even with challenges—are better positioned to build credibility with stakeholders, customers, and investors.
“Many businesses aren’t stopping their sustainability work; they’re just not talking about it as much. They’re worried about missing targets or drawing political attention, but transparency remains key.”
3. Financial markets are already making the shift
Even as governments hesitate, capital markets are moving. Banks are reducing exposure to fossil fuel investments. Insurers are walking away from climate-vulnerable regions. The message is clear: climate risk is financial risk.
Businesses that align their strategies accordingly are better placed to secure financing and reduce long-term exposure to stranded assets or uninsured operations.
“We’re seeing banks considering whether to stop investing in fossil fuel projects they see as becoming stranded assets. Insurance companies are also stepping back from high-risk climate areas—some regions can no longer get coverage at all.”
4. Carbon credits are under pressure—but still vital
Yes, carbon markets are facing more scrutiny. And that’s a good thing. Not all offsets are created equal—but the right ones, when used as part of a credible reduction strategy, remain critical for meeting net-zero goals.
High-integrity, verifiable carbon credits can help bridge the gap between ambition and action, especially for hard-to-abate emissions.
“High-integrity carbon credits are essential for reaching net zero. The focus shouldn’t be on rejecting offsets, but on ensuring they deliver real, measurable impact.”
5. NZ’s energy transition is now a business continuity issue
MBIE data projects that New Zealand’s natural gas supply will run out in approximately eight years. With natural gas supplies expected to run out within the decade, the question for businesses isn’tif they should transition—but how fast they can do it.
Energy decisions today have major implications for future resilience. Early movers will find more cost-effective and reliable options, while others risk getting caught short.
“Energy is one of the clearest examples of climate action becoming a business continuity issue. The transition away from fossil fuels isn’t just about emissions—it’s about ensuring long-term energy security, cost stability, and risk management.”
6. Exporters must be ready for stricter trade expectations
For New Zealand’s exporters, sustainability isn’t just a value-add—it’s a market access requirement. With our major trading partners tightening environmental standards, businesses that can’t demonstrate credible climate action may find themselves shut out.
On the flip side, leading exporters are already using sustainability to unlock new opportunities in global markets.
“We’re seeing more pressure on exporters to meet stringent sustainability criteria—not just from regulators, but from buyers across global markets. Supply chain emissions and environmental sustainability reporting are fast becoming essential for market access.”
7. Value chain and Scope 3 emissions are rising in importance
Scope 3 emissions – those that come from across a company’s value chain – are fast becoming a focal point in procurement, financing, and reporting. Large global firms like Salesforce and Nestlé are now requiring suppliers to measure, report, and reduce emissions.
Businesses that wait to engage with their suppliers may find themselves locked out of contracts. Those who lead will be the ones chosen as long-term partners.
“Scope 3 emissions are becoming more important in corporate reporting. Large companies are already demanding more data from their suppliers, and this will only accelerate. Businesses that engage their suppliers and take ownership of their full emissions footprint will gain a competitive edge.”
A call to action for 2025
At Toitū, we see 2025 not as a year of uncertainty—but as a year of opportunity.
The businesses that succeed in the next decade will be the ones that view sustainability as a strategic lever, not a compliance box. Those who invest in credible action today will be the ones earning trust, accessing capital, and gaining market share tomorrow.
Let’s make 2025 the year where climate leadership becomes core business strategy.
Want to learn more? These insights were explored in a recent webinar with Dr Belinda Mathers (Toitū Envirocare), Sean Weaver (Ekos), and Jeff Smit (DETA Consulting). Catch the replay here.